The most crucial difficulty arises from the fact that actuarial prediction is about groups, and unless we are talking about a high-frequency behaviour it can tell us little about individuals. Amongst this latter group will be men whose reoffences are both frequent and severe.
They claim, in fact, that these two variables alone were as successful in predicting recidivism as the remainder of all the many demographic, psychiatric, criminal and offence variables used in the study. The tension between public perception of sex offenders representing a high recidivism risk and the evident reality of statistics that demonstrate relatively low levels of sexual reoffending is in part influenced by a confusion between frequency and severity of reoffending, in part by the higher risk associated with some offenders, and in part by the nature of sex offending itself where any reoffence may be seen as unacceptable.
But other factors may also be at work in relation to past offences.
There are of course a variety of reasons for this, ranging from peer group pressure or incomplete socialisation to the fact that younger offenders may not have learnt to avoid detection of their crimes as competently as their older counterparts. Unless all sex offenders are to be incarcerated for indeterminate lengths of time, some means to separate higher from lower risk men is clearly necessary.
It is argued that the focus should be shifted from the search for single, putatively predictive variables to an attempt to understand why recidivism occurs. Sugarman, Dumughn, Saad, Hinder and Bluglassin a study of exhibitionists, found that future contact sex offending could be predicted by childhood conduct disorder, early first conviction, criminal history, personality disorder and relationship difficulties.
This study is perhaps the apotheosis of the actuarial approach, and as such it highlights well the fundamental defects inherent in it. Marshalland McKibben, Proulx and Lusignan describe the role of these negative emotions in the chain leading to deviant sexual behaviours.
Courts Criminal Cases. The myth of very high recidivism seems to rest on a handful of poorly designed studies. When individuals are being accused of reoffending, it is essential they work with an experienced and aggressive Houston sex crime lawyer from The Law Offices of Ned Barnett.
If you are a sex offender being wrongfully accused of committing another crime, call a Houston sex offense lawyer at The Law Offices of Ned Barnett immediately. About 3. There was an overall 5. Community Policing.
Unfortunately, meta-analysis is not particularly good at demonstrating multivariate effects, which require methodologies of a more complex type than one usually finds in follow-up studies. The following example illustrates this last point. The past five years have certainly been difficult for the Lantern Project, our staff, and ….
Overall, identification of those at low risk and those at exceptionally high risk of reoffending is good, although prediction of the future offending behaviour of individuals in between is much less satisfactory.
For example, the reason why never-having been married is a good predictor of reoffending against children could simply be that these men have little interest in forming relationships with women; even if they did subsequently marry, their risk of reoffending is unlikely to decrease indeed, one would be suspicious of such a man who suddenly announced his engagement, particularly if his girlfriend had children.
In the Quinsey et al.